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GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA).

After the Arab Spring, the region of North Africa Middle East (MENA) region is recovering on railles.Qatar will grow by 6.7% in 2015, followed by Morocco and Tunisia which will record the best performance in the Maghreb (+ 4.2% and + 3.9% respectively).They will benefit from the economic recovery in Europe.By cons, their growth will exceed the regional average, which also show an increase compared to last year with + 3.2% instead of +2.6%.Morocco and Tunisia, which are supported by Gulf nations, now will also benefit during the downturn of raw materials from which they are importing.However, Rabat and Tunis have undertaken major reforms: the elimination of fuel subsidies in Morocco, in Tunisia, where the energy too, the price of gasoline and diesel were increased.



  • Saoudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar
Other states show a gross domestic product (GDP) with a well above-average growth as, Saudi Arabia with 3.8% .However, the Gulf nations are vulnerable to a drop in oil prices.However, they have comfortable financial resources, strong banking systems and a business environment that supports investment and growth in the private sector.Moreover, most already conducting successful diversification policies, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with Dubai, become a logistics hub and tourism also providing it with specialized activity areas (manufacturing, media, health .. .) and Abu Dhabi that develops construction and areas dedicated to energy and consumer industries.


As for Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has opted for more diversification automotive, plastic, processing of ores and metals, solar appliances.

Despite his almost insolent economic health, Qatar decided that besides hydrocarbons should add other engines of the economy, namely: financial, commercial, and government services, the construction.More Back, Bahrain targeted communication and transports.Kuwait when with him, works to facilitate the development of small and medium enterprises.

  • Sector risk: a positive situation in the Golf
Overall, the risk in most Gulf countries whatever the sector is "moderate".We still have, note some areas at risk higher or lower: transportation and tourism Bharein and Kuwait. And, construction in all countries except Qatar.

The construction will be "boosted" the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Qatar by a series of mega-projects.For example, in Dubai with a rise in investment in real estate (Universal Exhibition of 2020).Riyadh for its part, launched a vast infrastructure program transport.When Qatar, its urbanization plans is added the effort required to organize the World Cup 2022 football.Deloitte in 2013, quoted the figure of 200 billion dollars for multiple construction projects.

By comparison, the risk is much higher in North Africa.The construction and textiles (clothing) sectors remain "high" risk in Morocco and Tunisia.The first area of activity, however, goes back into the kingdom Chérifien.The political stability, public programs of infrastructure and social housing as well as the development of tourism have a moderate risk.

  • The car: a growing sector
In MENA, automotive appears as a sector in full "boom" with a moderate risk rather like the food.This is the case for Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.In the UAE we note: Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.The high purchasing power is obviously an asset in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia seeking to become the sector hub in the Middle East.But in North Africa as the activity is dynamic.Second automobile producer in Africa, after South Africa, Morocco is seeking to attract manufacturers, major manufacturers welcome and assembly units.


-Frédéric Betta-Akwa

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