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GROWTH IN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC.

The East Asia and Pacific region is the main engine of global growth since the start of the international financial crisis.And this trend should remain stable except turning extraordinary situation.

This economic dynamism in the region is explained by stronger global growth already observed in 2014.

The growth rates in East Asia projected to be between 7.1% and 7.3% or less in 2015.Despite, a slowdown from the average growth rate of 8% for 2009-2013.

Chinese growth to when it should observe a slight decrease from 7.7% to 7.6% (see our previous article on the Chinese growth).

Some risks could nevertheless affect these regional forecasts.For example, a slower than expected economic recovery in developed countries, higher prices for interest rates and increased volatility in commodity prices resulting from recent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, remind us that Asia East remains vulnerable to the vagaries of the international situation.

By cons, as we have seen with the gradual withdrawal of easing from the Federal Reserve in 2013, the East Asian countries manage to overcome external shocks, such as a possible reversal of capital flows, thanks to the flexibility of their regimes change.They also feature mostly sufficient reserves to withstand temporary commercial and external shocks.

To maintain a high growth rate in the longer term, the East Asian developing countries should redouble their efforts to pursue structural reforms in order to strengthen their latent potential growth and market confidence.

Structural reforms are essential to reduce vulnerabilities and ensure long-term sustainable growth.

China has already initiated a series of reforms in finance, market access, mobility of labor and taxation in order to increase the efficiency of growth and boost demand interior.Over time, these measures will sit the economy on a more stable basis, more inclusive and sustainable.Some initiatives already announced by the government as a tax reform and reduction of barriers to private investment, could also stimulate short-term growth.

If they are successful, the reforms in China could have tremendous positive effects on trading partners that supply in agricultural products, consumer goods and modern services.However, a disorderly adjustment of the Chinese economy would have negative impacts on regional and global growth, particularly in countries dependent on natural resource exports.


-Frédéric Betta-Akwa

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