Temperature rise due to climate change may radically damage the global economy and slow growth in the coming decades if nothing is done to slow the pace of warming, according to new research.
The researchers behind the study, published in the journal Nature, found that temperature change due to unmitigated global warming will leave global GDP per capita 23% lower in 2100 than it would be without any warming. '' We are basically throwing away money by not addressing the issue,'' said Marshall Burke, an assistant professor at Stanford University. '' We see our study as providing an estimate of the benefits of reducing emissions.''
Their conclusions delivers two blockbusters.First, in contrast to past studies, they argue that 21st century warming could lead to huge global-scale macroeconomic impacts. The best estimate from Burke and colleagues is that business as usual emission throughout the 21st century will decrease GDP per capita by 23% below what it would otherwise be, with the possibility of a much larger impact.
Secondly, they conclude that both the size and the direction of the temperature effect depend on the starting temperature.Countries with an average yearly temperature greater than 13°C (55°F) will see decreased economic growth as temperatures rise.For cooler countries, warming will be an economic boom.This non- linear response creates a massive redistribution of future growth, away from hot regions and toward cool regions.Based on the analysis, rich and poor countries respond similarly at any temperature, but the impact of warming is nonetheless much greater on poor countries, because they are mostly in regions that are already warm.
This study is far from the first to suggest that climate change will slow economic growth.Big business has been especially keen on highlighting the potential damage.A citigroup report released this year found that minimizing temperature rises to 2.7°F (1.5°C) could minimize global GDP loss by $50 trillion compared to a rise of 8.1°F (4.5°C) in the coming decades.
-Frédéric Betta-Akwa
The researchers behind the study, published in the journal Nature, found that temperature change due to unmitigated global warming will leave global GDP per capita 23% lower in 2100 than it would be without any warming. '' We are basically throwing away money by not addressing the issue,'' said Marshall Burke, an assistant professor at Stanford University. '' We see our study as providing an estimate of the benefits of reducing emissions.''
Their conclusions delivers two blockbusters.First, in contrast to past studies, they argue that 21st century warming could lead to huge global-scale macroeconomic impacts. The best estimate from Burke and colleagues is that business as usual emission throughout the 21st century will decrease GDP per capita by 23% below what it would otherwise be, with the possibility of a much larger impact.
Secondly, they conclude that both the size and the direction of the temperature effect depend on the starting temperature.Countries with an average yearly temperature greater than 13°C (55°F) will see decreased economic growth as temperatures rise.For cooler countries, warming will be an economic boom.This non- linear response creates a massive redistribution of future growth, away from hot regions and toward cool regions.Based on the analysis, rich and poor countries respond similarly at any temperature, but the impact of warming is nonetheless much greater on poor countries, because they are mostly in regions that are already warm.
This study is far from the first to suggest that climate change will slow economic growth.Big business has been especially keen on highlighting the potential damage.A citigroup report released this year found that minimizing temperature rises to 2.7°F (1.5°C) could minimize global GDP loss by $50 trillion compared to a rise of 8.1°F (4.5°C) in the coming decades.
-Frédéric Betta-Akwa
Very nice article. keep it up
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